Sarah Palin

Mark Levin is convinced that Sarah will be there merely to promote her new movie. Karl Rove is suddenly convinced that she will be making her presidential aspirations official. Dick Morris agrees with Karl, and once again we are left to wonder: Does anyone know what Mitt Romney is doing?

One thing is certain, wherever Palin appears the press is sure to follow, and they will not be disappointed. The Palinistas and Tea Party faithful (dubbed Hobbits by McCain) will provide all of the atomsphere necessary on September 3rd to produce a memorable video montage for the nightly news.

We are still ten days away and already the buzz has reached a fever pitch on conservative talk radio, featuring of course the typical and highly predictable questions: Should she run? Can she win? Hasn’t Michele stolen her oxygen? Isn’t Romney more presidential?

Only Palin has to win the media pre-primary before she is allowed to run in an actual primary- “Prove to us that you deserve it, can win it, and if you win it can actual govern the country.”

Sarah Palin has nothing to prove. She has been raked thoroughly across the coals for over two years and has survived quite nicely. (Could Barack Obama survive one tenth the scrutiny?)

Is anyone still checking her emails? Weren’t there 20k or so pages of deftly written missives to dissect? How is it possible that NOTHING surfaced that would prove unflattering? Could ANYONE survive such an examination? She wasn’t a blip on the national radar when the bulk of the emails were written, so they unquestionably reflect what she has claimed to be all along, a hard-working woman of the people.

Will she announce her candidacy at Indianola? It’s hard to imagine another scenario that would justify the hype. Levin’s theory that she will simply hawk her movie doesn’t pass the smell test. It’s much more likely that she sees The Undefeated, the movie which attempts to set the record straight about her tenure as Alaska’s governor, as a the perfect vehicle to launch a presidential bid.

This scenario makes perfect sense. Sarah P. has two major obstacles in her path to the nomination. The first is the general ignorance of her accomplishments as governor, and the second is the perception by some conservatives that she lacks the gravitas to be president. The movie goes a long way to rehabilitating both misbegotten notions.

It’s easy to predict some things about Indianola. Palin will deliver a knockout speech. The crowd will be large and loud. The press will be looking unsuccessfully for a “gotcha” soundbite from the crowd and… Sarah P. will announce that she is a candidate for the office of President of the United States.

If she doesn’t announce it will be the best head-fake in recent American political history, and will likely do actual damage to her politically. Most if not all making the pilgrimage to Iowa for this event are expecting nothing short of a historical announcement.

As for whether or not there is enough oxygen left for another entrant in the 2012 race? Unlike the others Palin will not struggle to assemble a crowd. At every stop in Iowa the media will swarm and the people will come… people will most definitely come.

Theories will come too, and theories will go, but Sarah draws people and people trump theories when the ballots are counted. The thing that cannot be quantified is the X factor. The talking heads seldom consider the humanity or the general likeability of candidates when they lay out their flow charts.

Numerous polls have shown that the people who line up with Palin are extremely dedicated to her cause. Her army is not only wide at the front lines (read: facebook), it is deep in its commitment. Palin inspires, and that means more than ever when a nation despairs.

Forget about the polls, and forget about the theories. When Sarah P. announces her numbers will rise immediately, and similarly her name will change from “television personality”  to “candidate” causing the tone emanating from the 24 hour news cycle to turn more serious. It’s doubtful you will ever hear RINOs talk about tea party hobbits again, lest they suffer a rebuke from the Republican frontrunner.

My theory still holds: Palin is running, and it’s her race to lose. If history is any indication I wouldn’t bet against her, or her hobbits.