Its not the gender gap. It’s the marriage gap. Unmarried men also voted overwhelmingly for Obama. And the metrics in ‘12 are a lot worse than ’08. These are the two largest demographics. All the others are secondary subsets. In these voting groups, income is the second most important metric — $50,000 and under incomes for both unmarried women and unmarried men (middle class and below) voted Obama overwhelmingly. Now these folks will find most jobs becoming 29-hour, part time, contract jobs. They did not see it coming because we didn’t speak to them.
See how much voter groups have shifted in the 2012 exit polls, compared to 2008. Results for typical characteristics have a margin of error of four percentage points.
Republicans MUST develop a better social policy approach than what they have now (which is no approach at all). The Center for Marriage Policy the only organization in America that has a handle on these controlling demographics. Until somebody comes along with a better method to address the unmarried vote, I suggest we should go with what we have and work it diligently. We certainly cannot do worse than 2012 by trying it.
I know some folks are not happy that we keep pointing this out both before and after elections. Some folks think we are nuts and call us names. Please do not shoot the messengers. We are right on the money. It’s us or Democrats.
Marriage is the controlling demographic. It will work for us if we work on it. The above demographic speaks for itself, and it is not going to change until the MRP, RNC, action groups, and conservative/libertarian media works with us to build out a vibrant focus group issue.
David R. Usher, President
Center for Marriage Policy