So it seems an interesting turn of events happened last weekend and earlier this week…a turn of events I knew would eventually come as Russia…as Vladimir Putin… has now basically sided with Israel over Iran.
And with that Israel’s long hoped for wedge between Russia and Iran seems to becoming to fruition in addition to it also being one of our conditions for negotiating with Russia over the nightmare that is Syria.
With Russia now growing more and more annoyed that Iran’s presence in Syria coupled with its altercations with Israel could threaten their interests, this past Monday a news conference took place in Moscow where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the only “field military forces in the country’s southern border areas” should be Bashir al-Assad’s government forces and that neither Iran nor Hezbollah should be allowed anywhere near Israel’s border.
Referring to the hotly contested area known as the Golan Heights…an area bordering Jordan as well as Israel…what Lavrov actually alluded to was that Russia was open to Israeli demands that Iranian forces be kept far from its borders.
In fact, Benjamin Netanyahu recently met with Vladimir Putin and now it seems that Russia has no problem with Israel’s wanting Iranian forces…along with Hezbollah and Shi’ite militia groups…being kept at least 40 miles from their Golan Heights border. Realizing now that their previous agreed to “deal” with the Iranians…a “deal” that would see Iranian forces staying at least a minimum of three miles away from Israel’s border…continuously gets broken has Putin now fully understanding that Iran is putting in danger not only Russian interests in Syria…specifically regarding the port at Tartus…but also is affecting their trying to stabilize Bashir al-Assad’s government.
And while the area in question is currently being held by a number of rebel groups…groups that include tentacles of ISIS and al-Qaeda along with actual Iranian fighters…Israel continues to rightfully accuse Iran of trying to establish a “permanent presence” in this area. Offering as proof that Iranian operatives have already fired rockets into Israel from this very Golan Heights position, what Iran forgets is that Israel has every right to defend herself and thus has retaliated in kind by destroying both Syrian and Iranian military installations. And this has led Russia to understand that if they don’t keep Iranian forces and their proxy armies* away from Israel’s border, these Israeli strikes will indeed definitely undermine Bashar al-Assad’s tenuous hold on Syria.
In other words, Russia knows that it’s better for all parties concerned…except for Iran of course…to have the more secular Bashir al-Assad ruling Syria…especially since Putin can control him to a large degree…than it is to have the Iranian islamists gaining any control of the country…islamists Putin himself is personally no fan of. And Putin knows that as new ties continue to be forged between Israel and Russia…including much needed economic ties that help Russia way more than they help Israel…that those ties can actually be used to change the entire dynamics of the Middle East. How so…by creating a new alliance of sorts between not just Israel and Russia, but between Russia and the U.S. as well, and it’s an alliance that would help to “reset” all the damage one Barack HUSSEIN Obama did to the region.
And it’s a true “reset” in every sense of the word and it was started when President Donald Trump courageously pulled us out of Obama’s very bad nuclear deal…a “reset” against the Iranian regime that will change the critical balance of power in favor of the three mightiest military nations on earth. And make no mistake that Israel is one of the three…maybe even number two…right behind the U.S. as Russia’s recent economic downturn has affected both their military allocations and its designated military operations.
And while Obama’s ill-fated Arab Spring was a complete disaster that led to total regional chaos, the U.S., Russia, and Israel working together can restore a semblance of “normalcy” to said region…“normalcy” that favors the learned and sane over the archaic islamic fundamentalist rulers of Iran. And the more moderate Arab countries with their more moderate leaders would most surely see this “normalcy” as beneficial to both them and their countries as well, and Iran knows it. And Iran and the mullahs also know they must stop this alliance from happening if their dictatorial regime is to survive, especially now with all the turmoil and protests occurring on their own home soil as the people of Iran are yearning to be free.
So how exactly did Iran respond to Lavrov’s news conference…by saying that they most assuredly reject Russia’s words that they pull their forces out of Syria…especially those forces gathered along the Golan Heights border…saying so even if by some chance a political settlement between al-Assad and the rebels were to be reached. And Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi went so far as to threaten that, “No one can force Iran to do anything. Iran is an independent country and its policies are determined based on the interests of the Islamic Republic in the world.”
Well that might not exactly ring true as Russia has been secretly working on a deal to remove Iranian forces from Israel’s border after assessing the amount of damage Israel’s May 10th attack alone afflicted on both Iranian and Syrian targets, including the serious damage done to al-Assad’s much needed air defenses. Remember, Israel only initiated this attack in retaliation for Iran’s al-Quds forces launching 32 rockets at their “forward defensive line” on their side of the Golan Heights border…and Russia knew well that Israel would…and rightfully so…fight back.
And to that affect now entering center stage is Jordan…a country at peace with Israel but it’s peace with King Abdullah’s fingers crossed behind his back. A foolish move on his part because the peace treaty signed on October 26, 1994 included a clause that Israel would offer a military “umbrella of defense” should Jordan ever be threatened…and with Iranian fighters now being so close to their border allows Israel to perceive them and Jordan as being threatened and take defensive action if need be…something Abdullah surely would not like as he has known ties to Iran as well. But this is a peace treaty which, in my opinion, should have been negated long ago if only for the fact that Jordan and its king supports the Muslim Brotherhood as well as supporting, encouraging, and maybe even helping to fund the Palestinian intifada.
And so with rummages that al-Assad’s forces are now planning a soon to come attack on rebel held territory near its southern border with both Jordan and Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, reports are surfacing that Iran’s ambassador to Jordan, one Dr. Mostafa Moslehzadeh (via notes and messages passed between adjoining hotel rooms in Amman as well as between Syrian and Russian officials) met secretly last weekend with senior Israeli security officials…including a high-ranking member of the Mossad…to “negotiate” a deal where Iran would agree to stay out of the fighting in southern Syria especially near the Golan Heights border with Israel.
But remember Iran, like Russia, desperately wants that port at Tartus both for its direct and much needed access to the Mediterranean Sea and it’s soon to come money-making gas pipeline that will pass right through it…and only to one victor will the Tartus spoils go. But al-Assad and Russia both still need the Iranian-controlled militias to help take out the remaining so-called “pockets” of rebel held territories in Syria’s south…“pockets” in an area that is part of the “de-escalation zone”…which is a “safe” zone agreed to between both President Trump and President Putin on the sidelines at the Hamburg summit. Agreed to as a “temporary step” to maintain a ceasefire and remove foreign forces from the region in order to ensure a more “sustainable peace”…whom Bashir al-Assad eventually gives Tartus to is still a toss-up of sorts although, I believe, Tartus in the end will go to Russia.
And why do I think so…consider this…because Iran now clearly needs Russia’s support regarding the nuclear deal President Trump so courageously left. Remember, so few words were heard from Russia regarding our leaving said deal, and that allows Russia to hold the ‘trump’ card over Iran if they want said support. And that in turn now allows Russia to trade their support for Iranian concessions regarding the removal of its forces from Syria, which then makes Russia’s position regarding Syria more in line with both our and Israel’s demands. And al-Assad still gets Russia’s aide in helping to remove the rebels even with Iran no longer in the mix…a much needed win for al-Assad who then thanks Russia with Tartus.
Russia wins Tartus while Iran loses Syria but gets Russia’s support…low-key as it may be…regarding the nuclear deal which will soon collapse on its own anyway…kind of a win-win all around with much “face saved”…if only this would be.
And why if only…because while both Bashir al-Assad’s government forces and the rebel fighters are ‘supposed to be observing’ the previously stated ceasefire…with ‘supposed to be observing’ having a totally different meaning than actually ‘observing’…neither side is doing so. And that means if the two key factions involved will not observe the ceasefire then why should or would the third side…Iran…observe the ceasefire either. And if this simple agreement is not being honored what makes anyone think Iran would honor an agreement supposedly made on the sly with their enemy Israel.
And with al-Assad still planning on moving forward with the previously stated soon to come southern attack despite all warnings not to do so, Israel now has made it clear to Iran that there’s a strong possibility of direct armed conflict between their two countries should Iran decide to send either its troops or its Hezbollah proxy army to Syria’s south in order to have them take part in said fight…a fight which should only be between al-Assad’s forces and the rebels.
Also know that Israel sent this message for one specific reason alone…to let Iran know that it would not end well for them if they did choose to get involved. And that, when push comes to shove, just might be why Iran could agree not to take part in any government v. rebel battles in southern Syria especially if Israel agrees not to participate in combat in that region as well.
And don’t forget that as it stands right now Bashir al-Assad still sees Iran’s being in Syria as a plus of sorts which might temper down any agreements reached between Iran and Israel or Iran and Russia, because as long as al-Assad wants Iran in Syria, Iran one way or another will stay in Syria…unless Israel finally takes them out that is.
* Israel estimates there are about 2,000 Iranian troops; almost 9,000 Shi’ite militias fighter from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq; and another 7,000 members of Hezbollah currently operating in Syria.
Copyright @ 2018 Diane Sori / The Patriot Factor / All Rights Reserved.
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